Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Eric Hafner
—Hume Outlook held
INDOn the ballot
Bill Hill
—Hume Outlook held
LIBOn the ballot
James C. McDermott
—Hume Outlook held
REPAdvanced to the general
Nicholas J. Begich III
incumbent
—Hume Outlook held
IncumbentNicholas J. Begich III
Hume Outlook · held
Data availability
The Hume Outlook is not published for this race yet.
This race is not modelled in the current release.
Surface: Hume Outlook. Entity: Alaska at-large U.S. House 2026. Checked: 2026-10-28.
Nothing below is the Hume Outlook (our win probability); these are the other reads on this race.
Latest poll
Begich 51.0% · Hill 49.0%
Data for Progress · 2026-10-16
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+8
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 48.5%
2024 general · margin 2.0%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMHafnerINDHillLIBMcdermottREPBegich
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Eric HafnerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Hill$2,630,792.87
James C. McDermottNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nicholas J. Begich III$6,438,903.51
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Eric HafnerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Hill$2,513,060.55
James C. McDermottNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nicholas J. Begich III$4,760,366.88
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Eric HafnerNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Bill Hill$117,732.32
James C. McDermottNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Nicholas J. Begich III$1,782,866.69
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Eric HafnerNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-16)
Bill Hill49.0%Data for Progress · 2026-10-16
James C. McDermottNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-16)
Nicholas J. Begich III51.0%Data for Progress · 2026-10-16
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Eric HafnerR+8seat-level
Bill HillR+8seat-level
James C. McDermottR+8seat-level
Nicholas J. Begich IIIR+8seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
7 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Hafner | Hill | Mcdermott | Begich | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16 | LV · n=659 | not named | 49.0% | not named | 51.0% | none |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchAARP | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-11 | LV · n=800 | not named | 43.0% | not named | 57.0% | none |
| The Bullfinch GroupIndependent Leadership Council | 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-06 | LV · n=820 | not named | 46.5% | not named | 50.3% | none |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-23 | LV · n=1,872 | 4.6% | 39.1% | not named | 50.6% | John Williams 5.7% |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-08-02 to 2026-08-05 | LV · n=1,371 | 15.2% | 34.4% | not named | 50.4% | none |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-08-02 to 2026-08-05 | LV · n=1,371 | 14.7% | 33.2% | not named | 47.9% | Clay Strickland 4.2% |
| The Bullfinch GroupThe Independent Center; The Independent Leadership Council | 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16 | LV · n=546 | not named | 48.0% | not named | 52.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+8
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -8.204
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas J. Begich III | REP | 159,550 | 48.52% |
| Mary Sattler Peltola | DEM | 152,828 | 46.48% |
| John Wayne Howe | OTH | 13,010 | 3.96% |
| Eric Hafner | DEM | 3,417 | 1.04% |
Total votes 328,805 · winning margin 2.04% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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