AK Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running

DEMAdvanced from the Aug 18, 2026 top-four primary

Mary Peltola challenger (former U.S. Representative, AK-AL, 2022-2025) 49.5%, first place

28%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPAdvanced from the Aug 18, 2026 top-four primary

Dan S. Sullivan incumbent 41.4%

72%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

RatingToss Up · Cook Political Report · as of 2026-07-01

IncumbentDan S. Sullivan (R) - seeking a third term

Why it is watchedCook moved Alaska from Lean R to Toss Up on July 1, 2026 (Cook race page). Former Rep. Mary Peltola, the last Democrat to win statewide in Alaska, finished first in the Aug 18, 2026 top-four primary with 49.5% to the incumbent's 41.4% (Alaska Division of Elections via Wikipedia; Anchorage Daily News, Aug 29, 2026). The ballot also carries a second 'Dan Sullivan' - Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, 2.5%, whom the GOP says is running to siphon votes - and perennial candidate Gerald Heikes, elevated after fourth-place finisher David Leslie withdrew (Cook race summary; Anchorage Daily News, Sept 1, 2026). The general is decided by ranked-choice voting; the race has drawn over $30 million, with Peltola over $18 million raised to Sullivan's nearly $12 million by late July (Alaska Public Media, Aug 18, 2026).

Also on the ballotDaniel J. Sullivan Jr. (Independent) - Left off the card: a second candidate named Sullivan beside Sen. Dan S. Sullivan makes the card ambiguous for a reader. The audited 2026 ballot file lists him as an Independent; his FEC candidate registration records him as a Republican. He remains on the general-election ballot after advancing from the Aug 18 top-four primary with 2.5%, and the parties contest his candidacy as a name-confusion factor with Sen. Dan S. Sullivan; he is still named here under 'Also on the ballot' with this reason.; Gerald L. Heikes (Republican) - Left off the card as a minor candidate. On the ranked-choice general-election ballot only because fourth-place finisher David Leslie withdrew; he has no FEC candidate summary at all, so the card would carry four empty money cells for him. (This 2026-09-06 call also kept Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the card; that keep was superseded on 2026-10-30, and he is now left off too.)

Notes

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s party label differs by source: FEC candidate master and Cook say Republican (he asked to be listed as such); Wikipedia's results table shows no party listed.
Cook's initial rating after Peltola's entry was Lean R (Cook analysis title 'With Peltola Announcement, Alaska Senate Moves to Lean Republican'); the race page 'last updated' of Jul 1, 2026 is the Toss Up move.

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

72% Dan S. Sullivan · RepublicanLow confidenceChance to win after the final ranked-choice round, between the two named candidates

REP Dan S. Sullivan 72%

DEM Mary Peltola 28%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Peltola 51.0% · Dan S. Sullivan 49.0% Data for Progress · 2026-10-16

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+7 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat REP 54.0% 2020 general · margin 12.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 6 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMPeltolaREPDan S. Sullivan

Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage

Mary PeltolaALASKANS FOR MARYC00933978

Dan S. SullivanALASKANS FOR DAN SULLIVANC00570994

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Mary Peltola$36,887,509.15

Dan S. Sullivan$11,508,274.16

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Mary Peltola$32,785,383.22

Dan S. Sullivan$10,759,421.41

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Mary Peltola$4,102,125.93

Dan S. Sullivan$2,839,757.54

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Mary Peltola51.0%Data for Progress · 2026-10-16

Dan S. Sullivan49.0%Data for Progress · 2026-10-16

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Mary PeltolaR+7seat-level

Dan S. SullivanR+7seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

10 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-16

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Peltola	Dan S. Sullivan	Others
Data for Progress	2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16	LV · n=671	51.0%	49.0%	none
Public Policy Polling	2026-10-14 to 2026-10-15	RV · n=578	48.0%	47.0%	none
Quantus Insights	2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30	LV · n=758	47.2%	47.8%	none
co/efficient	2026-09-14 to 2026-09-17	LV · n=799	46.0%	49.0%	none
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchAARP	2026-09-08 to 2026-09-11	LV · n=800	53.0%	47.0%	none
Alaska Survey Research	2026-08-20 to 2026-08-23	LV · n=1,495	50.6%	49.4%	none
Alaska Survey Research	2026-08-02 to 2026-08-05	LV · n=1,371	50.8%	49.2%	none
The New York Times/Siena University	2026-06-15 to 2026-06-29	LV · n=593	45.0%	47.0%	none
Alaska Survey Research	2026-06-04 to 2026-06-07	LV · n=1,393	49.4%	44.2%	Gerald Heikes 3.7%; Dustin Darden 2.7%
Alaska Survey Research	2026-05-14 to 2026-05-17	LV · n=1,401	48.4%	43.8%	Dustin Darden 5.1%; Gerald Heikes 2.7%

8 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

R+7

Lean (D minus R, points): -6.574
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Dan S. Sullivan	REP	191,112	53.99%
Al Gross	DEM	146,068	41.26%
John Wayne Howe	OTH	16,806	4.75%

Total votes 353,986 · winning margin 12.72% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Alaska · U.S. Senate · 2026