Race header
DEMNominee
Clyde W Jones Jr.
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Jerry Carl
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
97% Jerry Carl · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jerry Carl
97%
DEM
Clyde W Jones Jr.
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJonesREPCarl
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Clyde W Jones Jr.$198,017.74
Jerry Carl$1,452,253.91
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Clyde W Jones Jr.$191,991.87
Jerry Carl$1,353,458.03
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Clyde W Jones Jr.$6,025.87
Jerry Carl$168,086.30
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Clyde W Jones Jr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jerry CarlNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Clyde W Jones Jr.Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jerry CarlNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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