Race header
DEMNominee
Shomari Figures
incumbent
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Rhett Marques
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentShomari Figures
Hume Outlook
68% Rhett Marques · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Rhett Marques
68%
DEM
Shomari Figures
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Marques 48.0% · Figures 46.0%
Remington Research Group · 2026-10-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMFiguresREPMarques
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Shomari Figures$2,706,098.03
Rhett Marques$1,716,373.63
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Shomari Figures$1,531,517.59
Rhett Marques$1,538,316.68
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Shomari Figures$1,197,689.31
Rhett Marques$178,056.95
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Shomari Figures46.0%Remington Research Group · 2026-10-25
Rhett Marques48.0%Remington Research Group · 2026-10-25
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Shomari FiguresNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Rhett MarquesNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Figures | Marques | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group | 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-25 | LV · n=642 | 46.0% | 48.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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