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Race · U.S. House · Arkansas · 2026

Arkansas District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Arkansas District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Arkansas District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Terri Yarbrough Green
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Steve G. Parsons
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Eric A. Rick Crawford incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentEric A. Rick Crawford

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Eric A. Rick Crawford · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Eric A. Rick Crawford 99%
DEM Terri Yarbrough Green 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+22 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 72.9% 2024 general · margin 48.9%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMGreenLIBParsonsREPCrawford
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Terri Yarbrough Green$124,313.99
Steve G. ParsonsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric A. Rick Crawford$1,135,655.28
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Terri Yarbrough Green$115,317.82
Steve G. ParsonsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric A. Rick Crawford$1,113,481.56
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Terri Yarbrough Green$8,996.17
Steve G. ParsonsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Eric A. Rick Crawford$853,000.58
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Terri Yarbrough GreenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Steve G. ParsonsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Eric A. Rick CrawfordNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Terri Yarbrough GreenR+22seat-level
Steve G. ParsonsR+22seat-level
Eric A. Rick CrawfordR+22seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+22
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -22.066

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Eric A. Rick CrawfordREP194,71172.88%
    Rodney GovensDEM64,11324.00%
    Steve G. ParsonsLIB8,3533.13%

    Total votes 267,177 · winning margin 48.88% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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