Race header
DEMNominee
Chris Jones
19%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
French Hill
incumbent
81%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentFrench Hill
Hume Outlook
81% French Hill · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
French Hill
81%
DEM
Chris Jones
19%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Hill 52.0% · Jones 48.0%
Emerson College / Poll Vault · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+9
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 58.9%
2024 general · margin 17.9%
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJonesREPHill
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Chris Jones$1,959,018.06
French Hill$5,264,024.47
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Chris Jones$1,684,839.35
French Hill$5,151,945.46
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Chris Jones$274,178.71
French Hill$1,488,431.20
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Chris Jones48.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
French Hill52.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Chris JonesR+9seat-level
French HillR+9seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Jones | Hill | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=383 | 48.0% | 52.0% | none |
| Hendrix CollegeTalk Business & Politics | 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-13 | LV · n=1,112 | 48.0% | 44.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+9
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -9.059
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| French Hill | REP | 180,509 | 58.93% |
| Marcus A. Jones | DEM | 125,777 | 41.07% |
Total votes 306,286 · winning margin 17.87% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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