AR-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Arkansas District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

James Rus Russell III

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Bruce Westerman incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBruce Westerman

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Bruce Westerman · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Bruce Westerman 98%

DEM James Rus Russell III 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+19 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 72.9% 2024 general · margin 45.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMRussellREPWesterman

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

James Rus Russell III$21,553.80

Bruce Westerman$2,975,232.54

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

James Rus Russell III$17,690.21

Bruce Westerman$1,506,970.43

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

James Rus Russell III$4,545.60

Bruce Westerman$4,501,822.51

Latest pollpercent, as stored

James Rus Russell IIINot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Bruce WestermanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

James Rus Russell IIIR+19seat-level

Bruce WestermanR+19seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+19

Lean (D minus R, points): -19.291

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Bruce Westerman	REP	197,046	72.91%
Risie Howard	DEM	73,207	27.09%

Total votes 270,253 · winning margin 45.82% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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