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DEMNominee
Hallie Shoffner
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Jeff Wadlin
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tom Cotton
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTom Cotton
Hume Outlook
97% Tom Cotton · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Tom Cotton
97%
DEM
Hallie Shoffner
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Cotton 55.0% · Shoffner 39.0% · Wadlin 4.0%
GrayHouse / America One Policies · 2026-10-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+15
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 66.5%
2020 general · margin 33.1%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMShoffnerLIBWadlinREPCotton
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Hallie Shoffner$4,042,810.83
Jeff Wadlin$80,063.00
Tom Cotton$7,149,643.47
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Hallie Shoffner$3,285,879.13
Jeff Wadlin$73,771.57
Tom Cotton$9,470,585.49
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Hallie Shoffner$756,931.70
Jeff Wadlin$6,291.43
Tom Cotton$5,129,927.81
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Hallie Shoffner39.0%GrayHouse · 2026-10-28
Jeff Wadlin4.0%GrayHouse · 2026-10-28
Tom Cotton55.0%GrayHouse · 2026-10-28
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Hallie ShoffnerR+15seat-level
Jeff WadlinR+15seat-level
Tom CottonR+15seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
5 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Shoffner | Wadlin | Cotton | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouseAmerica One Policies | 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28 | LV · n=509 | 39.0% | 4.0% | 55.0% | none |
| Hendrix CollegeTalk Business & Politics | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=709 | 41.0% | 5.0% | 50.0% | none |
| Grayhouse | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | LV · n=550 | 40.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | none |
| J.L. Partners | 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-18 | LV · n=803 | 35.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | none |
| GrayHouseAmerica One Policies | 2026-02-07 to 2026-02-09 | LV · n=550 | 36.0% | not named | 58.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+15
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -15.440
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | REP | 793,871 | 66.53% |
| Ricky Dale Harrington JR. | LIB | 399,390 | 33.47% |
Total votes 1,193,261 · winning margin 33.06% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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