AZ-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Amish Shah

66%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

LIBOn the ballot

Monica Alponte

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Thomas Jay Feely IV

34%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

66% Amish Shah · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Amish Shah 66%

REP Thomas Jay Feely IV 34%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+2 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 51.9% 2024 general · margin 3.8%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMShahLIBAlponteREPFeely

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Amish Shah$5,654,453.93

Monica Alponte$9,453.39

Thomas Jay Feely IV$3,799,654.13

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Amish Shah$5,540,210.49

Monica Alponte$8,699.17

Thomas Jay Feely IV$3,616,889.81

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Amish Shah$206,045.34

Monica Alponte$754.22

Thomas Jay Feely IV$182,764.32

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Amish ShahNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Monica AlponteNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Thomas Jay Feely IVNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Amish ShahR+2seat-level

Monica AlponteR+2seat-level

Thomas Jay Feely IVR+2seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+2

Lean (D minus R, points): -2.129

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
David Schweikert	REP	225,538	51.91%
Amish Shah	DEM	208,966	48.09%

Total votes 434,504 · winning margin 3.81% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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