Race header
DEMNominee
Jonathan Nez
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Curtis Goodwin
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Elijah Crane
incumbent
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentElijah Crane
Hume Outlook
60% Elijah Crane · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Elijah Crane
60%
DEM
Jonathan Nez
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Crane 48.0% · Nez 50.0%
Emerson College / Poll Vault · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+7
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 54.5%
2024 general · margin 9.0%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMNezLIBGoodwinREPCrane
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jonathan Nez$5,805,340.75
Curtis GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Elijah Crane$11,904,946.44
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jonathan Nez$5,364,572.21
Curtis GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Elijah Crane$10,873,253.53
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jonathan Nez$506,072.00
Curtis GoodwinNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Elijah Crane$1,349,062.98
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jonathan Nez50.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Curtis GoodwinNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-14)
Elijah Crane48.0%Emerson College · 2026-10-14
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jonathan NezR+7seat-level
Curtis GoodwinR+7seat-level
Elijah CraneR+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Nez | Goodwin | Crane | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegePoll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | LV · n=345 | 50.0% | not named | 48.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+7
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -6.585
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Crane | REP | 221,413 | 54.48% |
| Jonathan Nez | DEM | 184,963 | 45.52% |
Total votes 406,376 · winning margin 8.97% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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