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Race · U.S. House · Arizona · 2026

Arizona District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Arizona District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Arizona District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Yassamin Ansari incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
David Redkey
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Alan Aversa
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentYassamin Ansari

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Yassamin Ansari · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Yassamin Ansari 99%
OTH Alan Aversa 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+24 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 70.9% 2024 general · margin 44.4%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMAnsariGRNRedkeyOTHAversa
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Yassamin Ansari$1,697,729.13
David Redkey$0.00
Alan Aversa$774.33
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Yassamin Ansari$1,297,515.81
David Redkey$0.00
Alan Aversa$991.25
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Yassamin Ansari$410,624.03
David Redkey$0.00
Alan Aversa$256.28
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Yassamin AnsariNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
David RedkeyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Alan AversaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Yassamin AnsariD+24seat-level
David RedkeyD+24seat-level
Alan AversaD+24seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+24
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +24.216

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Yassamin AnsariDEM143,33670.94%
    Jeff ZinkREP53,70526.58%
    Alan AversaGRN5,0082.48%

    Total votes 202,049 · winning margin 44.36% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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