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Race · U.S. House · Arizona · 2026

Arizona District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Arizona District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Arizona District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Greg Stanton incumbent
93%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Tisha Benoit
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Zuhdi Jasser
7%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGreg Stanton

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
93% Greg Stanton · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Greg Stanton 93%
REP Zuhdi Jasser 7%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+2 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 52.7% 2024 general · margin 7.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMStantonOTHBenoitREPJasser
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Greg Stanton$2,674,366.81
Tisha BenoitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zuhdi Jasser$744,304.25
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Greg Stanton$1,771,390.65
Tisha BenoitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zuhdi Jasser$654,748.25
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Greg Stanton$1,918,706.62
Tisha BenoitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Zuhdi Jasser$89,556.00
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Greg StantonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tisha BenoitNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Zuhdi JasserNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Greg StantonD+2seat-level
Tisha BenoitD+2seat-level
Zuhdi JasserD+2seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+2
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +2.148

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Greg StantonDEM176,42852.74%
    Kelly CooperREP152,05245.45%
    Vincent Beck-JonesGRN6,0651.81%

    Total votes 334,545 · winning margin 7.29% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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