AZ-05 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Arizona District 5 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Elizabeth Lee

10%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Mark Lamb

90%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

90% Mark Lamb · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Mark Lamb 90%

DEM Elizabeth Lee 10%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 60.4% 2024 general · margin 20.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMLeeREPLamb

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Elizabeth Lee$375,628.14

Mark Lamb$1,771,670.69

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Elizabeth Lee$251,492.08

Mark Lamb$1,590,920.13

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Elizabeth Lee$124,136.06

Mark Lamb$180,750.56

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Elizabeth LeeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Mark LambNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Elizabeth LeeR+11seat-level

Mark LambR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -11.171

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Andy Biggs	REP	255,628	60.39%
Katrina Schaffner	DEM	167,680	39.61%

Total votes 423,308 · winning margin 20.78% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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