Race header
DEMNominee
JoAnna Mendoza
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Gary Swing
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Jereme Lance Peters
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Juan Ciscomani
incumbent
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJuan Ciscomani
Hume Outlook
68% JoAnna Mendoza · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
JoAnna Mendoza
68%
REP
Juan Ciscomani
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Mendoza 47.0% · Ciscomani 45.0%
Normington, Petts & Associates / House Majority PAC · 2026-06-11
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+3
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 50.0%
2024 general · margin 2.5%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMendozaGRNSwingLIBPetersREPCiscomani
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
JoAnna Mendoza$11,242,473.21through 2026-10-14
Gary SwingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jereme Lance Peters$10,500.00through 2026-03-31
Juan Ciscomani$7,649,793.85through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
JoAnna Mendoza$10,434,573.97through 2026-10-14
Gary SwingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jereme Lance Peters$10,500.00through 2026-03-31
Juan Ciscomani$7,267,655.99through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
JoAnna Mendoza$807,899.24through 2026-10-14
Gary SwingNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jereme Lance Peters$0.00through 2026-03-31
Juan Ciscomani$618,698.75through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
JoAnna Mendoza47.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-06-11
Gary SwingNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-06-11)
Jereme Lance PetersNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-06-11)
Juan Ciscomani45.0%Normington, Petts & Associates · 2026-06-11
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
JoAnna MendozaR+3seat-level
Gary SwingR+3seat-level
Jereme Lance PetersR+3seat-level
Juan CiscomaniR+3seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Mendoza | Swing | Peters | Ciscomani | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-11 | LV · n=500 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Ragnar Research PartnersConservatives for America | 2026-03-12 to 2026-03-14 | LV · n=400 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 44.0% | none |
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2025-10-14 to 2025-10-15 | LV · n=581 | 42.0% | not named | not named | 41.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+3
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -2.691
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Ciscomani | REP | 215,596 | 50.01% |
| Kirsten Engel | DEM | 204,774 | 47.50% |
| Athena Eastwood | GRN | 10,759 | 2.50% |
Total votes 431,129 · winning margin 2.51% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Mar 31, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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