AZ-07 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Arizona District 7 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Adelita S. Grijalva incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentAdelita S. Grijalva

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Adelita S. Grijalva · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Adelita S. Grijalva 99%

REP Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr. 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+15 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 63.5% 2024 general · margin 26.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGrijalvaREPButierez

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Adelita S. Grijalva$2,559,577.10

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.$233,882.40

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Adelita S. Grijalva$2,122,029.96

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.$223,187.87

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Adelita S. Grijalva$437,547.14

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.$11,286.67

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Adelita S. GrijalvaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Adelita S. GrijalvaD+15seat-level

Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr.D+15seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+15

Lean (D minus R, points): +14.699

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Raúl M. Grijalva	DEM	171,954	63.45%
Daniel Francis Butierez, SR.	REP	99,057	36.55%

Total votes 271,011 · winning margin 26.90% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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