Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Eric Jones
66%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
DEMAdvanced to the general
Mike Thompson
incumbent
34%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Thompson
Hume Outlook
66% Eric Jones · DemocratLow confidenceChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Eric Jones
66%
DEM
Mike Thompson
34%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJonesDEMThompson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Eric Jones$18,058,057.13
Mike Thompson$5,482,944.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Eric Jones$16,516,978.44
Mike Thompson$5,290,993.22
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Eric Jones$1,541,078.69
Mike Thompson$1,401,439.52
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Eric JonesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike ThompsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Eric JonesNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike ThompsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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