Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Michael Masuda
9%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Tom McClintock
incumbent
91%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTom McClintock
Hume Outlook
91% Tom McClintock · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Tom McClintock
91%
DEM
Michael Masuda
9%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMMasudaREPMcclintock
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Michael Masuda$581,621.44
Tom McClintock$1,254,441.78
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Michael Masuda$521,955.65
Tom McClintock$1,088,546.39
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Michael Masuda$59,665.79
Tom McClintock$314,100.38
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Michael MasudaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tom McClintockNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Michael MasudaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tom McClintockNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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