Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Richard Pan
68%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Kevin Kiley
32%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
68% Richard Pan · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Richard Pan
68%
IND
Kevin Kiley
32%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Pan 39.0% · Kiley 35.0%
The Bullfinch Group / The Independent Center · 2026-07-16
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPanINDKiley
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Richard Pan$2,548,242.27
Kevin Kiley$3,723,214.51
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Richard Pan$2,340,306.07
Kevin Kiley$4,069,544.58
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Richard Pan$207,936.20
Kevin Kiley$34,648.00
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Richard Pan39.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-07-16
Kevin Kiley35.0%The Bullfinch Group · 2026-07-16
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Richard PanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Kevin KileyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Pan | Kiley | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch GroupThe Independent Center | 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16 | LV · n=741 | 39.0% | 35.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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