Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
John Garamendi
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Rudy Recile
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn Garamendi
Hume Outlook
99% John Garamendi · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
John Garamendi
99%
REP
Rudy Recile
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGaramendiREPRecile
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
John Garamendi$582,745.60through 2026-10-14
Rudy Recile$20,073.00through 2026-09-30
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
John Garamendi$615,820.67through 2026-10-14
Rudy Recile$20,875.45through 2026-09-30
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
John Garamendi$1,231,642.66through 2026-10-14
Rudy Recile$235.29through 2026-09-30
Latest pollpercent, as stored
John GaramendiNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Rudy RecileNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
John GaramendiNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Rudy RecileNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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