Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Josh Harder
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
John McBride
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJosh Harder
Hume Outlook
99% Josh Harder · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Josh Harder
99%
REP
John McBride
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMHarderREPMcbride
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Josh Harder$4,490,401.33
John McBride$77,472.65
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Josh Harder$1,396,540.99
John McBride$73,035.61
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Josh Harder$4,782,692.06
John McBride$4,547.04
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Josh HarderNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John McBrideNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Josh HarderNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
John McBrideNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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