Influence no longer invisible Races · CA-10 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · California · 2026

California District 10 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, California District 10

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Race header

U.S. House, California District 10 · Incumbent running
DEMAdvanced to the general
Mark DeSaulnier incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Jeff Frese
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMark DeSaulnier

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Mark DeSaulnier · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Mark DeSaulnier 99%
REP Jeff Frese 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMDesaulnierREPFrese
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Mark DeSaulnier$721,776.27
Jeff FreseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Mark DeSaulnier$883,543.97
Jeff FreseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Mark DeSaulnier$467,219.62
Jeff FreseNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Mark DeSaulnierNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jeff FreseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Mark DeSaulnierNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jeff FreseNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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