Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Connie Chan
41%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
DEMAdvanced to the general
Scott Wiener
59%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
59% Scott Wiener · DemocratLow confidenceChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Scott Wiener
59%
DEM
Connie Chan
41%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Wiener 51.0% · Chan 44.0%
University of Southern California Democracy and Fair Elections Lab · 2026-10-19
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMChanDEMWiener
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Connie Chan$2,404,664.18
Scott Wiener$5,808,855.03
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Connie Chan$1,822,859.27
Scott Wiener$5,198,326.16
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Connie Chan$581,804.91
Scott Wiener$611,039.24
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Connie Chan44.0%University of Southern California Democracy and Fair Elections Lab · 2026-10-19
Scott Wiener51.0%University of Southern California Democracy and Fair Elections Lab · 2026-10-19
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Connie ChanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Scott WienerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Chan | Wiener | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Southern California Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=454 | 44.0% | 51.0% | none |
| Tavern ResearchJobs and Democracy PAC | 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17 | LV · n=658 | 34.0% | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.