Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Adam Gray
incumbent
96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Kevin Lincoln
4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAdam Gray
Hume Outlook
96% Adam Gray · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Adam Gray
96%
REP
Kevin Lincoln
4%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGrayREPLincoln
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Adam Gray$5,241,028.11
Kevin Lincoln$2,971,922.26
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Adam Gray$4,584,353.20
Kevin Lincoln$2,547,657.95
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Adam Gray$848,632.63
Kevin Lincoln$448,388.44
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Adam GrayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kevin LincolnNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Adam GrayNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Kevin LincolnNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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