Influence no longer invisible Races · CA-15 House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · California · 2026

California District 15 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, California District 15

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, California District 15 · Incumbent running
DEMAdvanced to the general
Kevin Mullin incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Charles Hoelter
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentKevin Mullin

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Kevin Mullin · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Kevin Mullin >99%
REP Charles Hoelter <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMullinREPHoelter
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kevin Mullin$981,645.13
Charles HoelterNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kevin Mullin$846,815.26
Charles HoelterNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kevin Mullin$191,601.11
Charles HoelterNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kevin MullinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Charles HoelterNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kevin MullinNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Charles HoelterNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.