Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Jim Costa
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Kyle Kirkland
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJim Costa
Hume Outlook
97% Jim Costa · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Jim Costa
97%
REP
Kyle Kirkland
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCostaREPKirkland
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jim Costa$1,685,248.73
Kyle Kirkland$464,700.09
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jim Costa$1,393,363.70
Kyle Kirkland$451,599.35
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jim Costa$500,767.13
Kyle Kirkland$13,100.74
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jim CostaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kyle KirklandNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jim CostaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Kyle KirklandNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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