Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Randy Villegas
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
David G. Valadao
incumbent
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDavid G. Valadao
Hume Outlook
97% Randy Villegas · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Randy Villegas
97%
REP
David G. Valadao
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Villegas 48.0% · Valadao 44.0%
Tulchin Research / House Majority PAC · 2026-06-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMVillegasREPValadao
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Randy Villegas$5,942,030.17
David G. Valadao$6,325,324.07
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Randy Villegas$4,979,678.40
David G. Valadao$4,659,208.33
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Randy Villegas$962,351.77
David G. Valadao$1,711,651.27
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Randy Villegas48.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-06-21
David G. Valadao44.0%Tulchin Research · 2026-06-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Randy VillegasNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
David G. ValadaoNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Villegas | Valadao | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchHouse Majority PAC | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-21 | LV · n=800 | 48.0% | 44.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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