Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Tessa Lynn Hodge
8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Jay Obernolte
incumbent
92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJay Obernolte
Hume Outlook
92% Jay Obernolte · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jay Obernolte
92%
DEM
Tessa Lynn Hodge
8%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMHodgeREPObernolte
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Tessa Lynn Hodge$126,771.66
Jay Obernolte$1,854,658.18
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Tessa Lynn Hodge$114,337.33
Jay Obernolte$1,473,929.60
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Tessa Lynn Hodge$12,434.33
Jay Obernolte$1,378,568.34
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Tessa Lynn HodgeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jay ObernolteNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Tessa Lynn HodgeNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jay ObernolteNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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