Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Salud Carbajal
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Bob Smith
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentSalud Carbajal
Hume Outlook
99% Salud Carbajal · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Salud Carbajal
99%
REP
Bob Smith
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMCarbajalREPSmith
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Salud Carbajal$1,917,271.26
Bob Smith$346,742.15
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Salud Carbajal$1,217,678.02
Bob Smith$289,534.26
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Salud Carbajal$3,343,462.75
Bob Smith$57,207.89
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Salud CarbajalNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Bob SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Salud CarbajalNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Bob SmithNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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