Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Brad Sherman
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Larry Thompson
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBrad Sherman
Hume Outlook
99% Brad Sherman · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Brad Sherman
99%
REP
Larry Thompson
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMShermanREPThompson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brad Sherman$2,899,860.15
Larry Thompson$66,331.34
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brad Sherman$4,148,561.70
Larry Thompson$59,185.45
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brad Sherman$2,673,243.15
Larry Thompson$7,145.89
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brad ShermanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Larry ThompsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brad ShermanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Larry ThompsonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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