Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Pete Aguilar
incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Stephanie M. Vargas
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentPete Aguilar
Hume Outlook
98% Pete Aguilar · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Pete Aguilar
98%
REP
Stephanie M. Vargas
2%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMAguilarREPVargas
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Pete Aguilar$5,676,010.87
Stephanie M. Vargas$720.51
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Pete Aguilar$5,651,367.62
Stephanie M. Vargas$200.00
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Pete Aguilar$2,673,714.42
Stephanie M. Vargas$520.51
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Pete AguilarNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Stephanie M. VargasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Pete AguilarNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Stephanie M. VargasNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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