Race header
REPAdvanced to the general
Ken Calvert
41%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Young Kim
incumbent
59%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentYoung Kim
Hume Outlook
59% Young Kim · RepublicanLow confidenceChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Young Kim
59%
REP
Ken Calvert
41%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Calvert 34.0% · Kim 43.0%
Grassroots Targeting / California First Fund · 2026-09-09
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureREPCalvertREPKim
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ken Calvert$7,050,383.48
Young Kim$10,148,196.21
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ken Calvert$6,332,128.58
Young Kim$10,973,616.52
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ken Calvert$980,390.51
Young Kim$910,972.96
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ken Calvert34.0%Grassroots Targeting · 2026-09-09
Young Kim43.0%Grassroots Targeting · 2026-09-09
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ken CalvertNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Young KimNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Calvert | Kim | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots TargetingCalifornia First Fund | 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-09 | LV · n=800 | 34.0% | 43.0% | none |
| American ViewpointCalifornia First Fund | 2026-07-08 to 2026-07-12 | LV · n=400 | 33.0% | 32.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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