Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Robert Garcia
incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Brian Burley
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentRobert Garcia
Hume Outlook
98% Robert Garcia · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Robert Garcia
98%
REP
Brian Burley
2%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGarciaREPBurley
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Robert Garcia$3,394,174.67
Brian Burley$251,136.54
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Robert Garcia$2,233,622.95
Brian Burley$254,974.12
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Robert Garcia$1,572,979.62
Brian Burley$1,939.28
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Robert GarciaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Brian BurleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Robert GarciaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Brian BurleyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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