Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Maxine Waters
incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Cristian Morales
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMaxine Waters
Hume Outlook
>99% Maxine Waters · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Maxine Waters
>99%
REP
Cristian Morales
<1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMWatersREPMorales
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Maxine Waters$1,107,267.34
Cristian Morales$14,995.00
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Maxine Waters$1,119,052.46
Cristian Morales$14,456.26
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Maxine Waters$104,671.36
Cristian Morales$538.74
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Maxine WatersNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Cristian MoralesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Maxine WatersNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Cristian MoralesNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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