Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Marni von Wilpert
89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Jim Desmond
11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
89% Marni von Wilpert · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Marni von Wilpert
89%
REP
Jim Desmond
11%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Wilpert 47.0% · Desmond 38.0%
SurveyUSA / KGTV (San Diego); The San Diego Union-Tribune · 2026-10-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMWilpertREPDesmond
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Marni von Wilpert$4,966,576.06
Jim Desmond$3,177,972.16
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Marni von Wilpert$4,307,440.02
Jim Desmond$2,460,453.71
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Marni von Wilpert$659,136.04
Jim Desmond$717,518.45
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Marni von Wilpert47.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-07
Jim Desmond38.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-10-07
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Marni von WilpertNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jim DesmondNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Wilpert | Desmond | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAKGTV (San Diego); The San Diego Union-Tribune | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07 | LV · n=518 | 47.0% | 38.0% | none |
| SurveyUSAKGTV (San Diego); The San Diego Union Tribune | 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-01 | LV · n=522 | 45.0% | 42.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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