Influence no longer invisible Races · CA-51 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · California · 2026

California District 51 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, California District 51

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Race header

U.S. House, California District 51 · Incumbent running
DEMAdvanced to the general
Sara Jacobs incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Ricardo Cabrera
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentSara Jacobs

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Sara Jacobs · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Sara Jacobs 98%
REP Ricardo Cabrera 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMJacobsREPCabrera
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Sara Jacobs$1,864,955.14
Ricardo CabreraNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Sara Jacobs$1,624,896.90
Ricardo CabreraNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Sara Jacobs$317,430.40
Ricardo CabreraNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Sara JacobsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ricardo CabreraNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Sara JacobsNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Ricardo CabreraNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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