Race header
DEMAdvanced to the general
Juan Vargas
incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPAdvanced to the general
Jeff Belle
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJuan Vargas
Hume Outlook
99% Juan Vargas · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Juan Vargas
99%
REP
Jeff Belle
1%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMVargasREPBelle
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Juan Vargas$836,097.06
Jeff Belle$26,538.06
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Juan Vargas$609,275.89
Jeff Belle$26,456.35
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Juan Vargas$317,661.81
Jeff Belle$81.71
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Juan VargasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jeff BelleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Juan VargasNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jeff BelleNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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