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Race · U.S. House · Colorado · 2026

Colorado District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Colorado District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Colorado District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Joe Neguse incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Gaylon Kent
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Kelley Anne Dennison
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJoe Neguse

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Joe Neguse · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Joe Neguse 99%
REP Kelley Anne Dennison 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+17 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 68.4% 2024 general · margin 39.4%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMNeguseLIBKentREPDennison
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Joe Neguse$3,342,640.14
Gaylon KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kelley Anne Dennison$12,348.37
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Joe Neguse$2,094,399.66
Gaylon KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kelley Anne Dennison$11,261.16
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Joe Neguse$3,239,137.70
Gaylon KentNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kelley Anne Dennison$1,087.21
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Joe NeguseNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gaylon KentNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kelley Anne DennisonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Joe NeguseD+17seat-level
Gaylon KentD+17seat-level
Kelley Anne DennisonD+17seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+17
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +17.225

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Joe NeguseDEM284,99468.36%
    Marshall DawsonREP120,63328.94%
    Gaylon KentLIB5,1801.24%
    Cynthia Munhos De Aquino SirianniOTH3,7440.90%
    Jan KokOTH2,3490.56%

    Total votes 416,900 · winning margin 39.42% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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