Race header
DEMNominee
Dwayne L. Romero
46%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Clifton Brown
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Cory Robertson
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jeff Hurd
incumbent
54%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJeff Hurd
Hume Outlook
54% Jeff Hurd · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Jeff Hurd
54%
DEM
Dwayne L. Romero
46%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Hurd 46.0% · Romero 47.0%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+7
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 50.8%
2024 general · margin 5.0%
Side by side
4 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMRomeroINDBrownLIBRobertsonREPHurd
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Dwayne L. Romero$1,701,091.41
Clifton BrownNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cory RobertsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeff Hurd$4,168,636.04
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Dwayne L. Romero$1,504,967.24
Clifton BrownNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cory RobertsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeff Hurd$3,940,003.96
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Dwayne L. Romero$196,124.17
Clifton BrownNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cory RobertsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jeff Hurd$237,767.58
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Dwayne L. Romero47.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-21
Clifton BrownNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-21)
Cory RobertsonNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-21)
Jeff Hurd46.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-21
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Dwayne L. RomeroR+7seat-level
Clifton BrownR+7seat-level
Cory RobertsonR+7seat-level
Jeff HurdR+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Romero | Brown | Robertson | Hurd | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21 | LV · n=402 | 47.0% | not named | not named | 46.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+7
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -7.180
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hurd | REP | 201,951 | 50.80% |
| Adam Frisch | DEM | 182,147 | 45.82% |
| James Wiley | LIB | 10,734 | 2.70% |
| Adam Withrow | OTH | 2,721 | 0.68% |
Total votes 397,553 · winning margin 4.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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