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Race · U.S. House · Connecticut · 2026

Connecticut District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Connecticut District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, Connecticut District 1 · Open seat
DEMNominee
Luke Bronin
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Mary L. Sanders
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Amy Chai
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Luke Bronin · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Luke Bronin 99%
REP Amy Chai 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+12 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 59.9% 2024 general · margin 25.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBroninGRNSandersREPChai
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Luke Bronin$3,865,511.27
Mary L. SandersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Amy Chai$21,972.16
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Luke Bronin$3,474,692.98
Mary L. SandersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Amy Chai$16,375.01
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Luke Bronin$390,818.29
Mary L. SandersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Amy Chai$690.00
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Luke BroninNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mary L. SandersNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Amy ChaiNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Luke BroninD+12seat-level
Mary L. SandersD+12seat-level
Amy ChaiD+12seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+12
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +11.640

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    John B. LarsonDEM197,78859.85%
    Jim GriffinREP115,06534.82%
    Mary L. SandersGRN6,7682.05%

    Total votes 330,482 · winning margin 25.03% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts the Working Families line (no candidate named) 10,861; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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