CT-02 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Connecticut District 2 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Joe Courtney incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

George Patrick Austin

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJoe Courtney

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Joe Courtney · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Joe Courtney 97%

REP George Patrick Austin 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+2 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 58.0% 2024 general · margin 16.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMCourtneyREPAustin

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Joe Courtney$966,513.57

George Patrick Austin$314,977.26

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Joe Courtney$932,047.23

George Patrick Austin$218,265.18

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Joe Courtney$385,577.84

George Patrick Austin$96,712.08

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Joe CourtneyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

George Patrick AustinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Joe CourtneyD+2seat-level

George Patrick AustinD+2seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+2

Lean (D minus R, points): +2.409

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Joe Courtney	DEM	218,162	58.02%
Mike France	REP	157,878	41.98%

Total votes 376,040 · winning margin 16.03% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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