Influence no longer invisible Races · CT-04 House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · Connecticut · 2026

Connecticut District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Connecticut District 4

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, Connecticut District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jim Himes incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Benjamin Wesley
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael Ted Goldstein
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJim Himes

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Jim Himes · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Jim Himes 99%
REP Michael Ted Goldstein 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+13 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 61.1% 2024 general · margin 23.7%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHimesOTHWesleyREPGoldstein
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jim Himes$1,704,622.29
Benjamin WesleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Ted Goldstein$59,216.32
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jim Himes$1,392,027.06
Benjamin WesleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Ted Goldstein$32,551.59
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jim Himes$2,419,413.69
Benjamin WesleyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael Ted Goldstein$26,664.73
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jim HimesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Benjamin WesleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Michael Ted GoldsteinNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jim HimesD+13seat-level
Benjamin WesleyD+13seat-level
Michael Ted GoldsteinD+13seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+13
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +12.557

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jim HimesDEM200,79161.06%
    Michael GoldsteinREP122,79337.34%
    Benjamin WesleyOTH5,2731.60%

    Total votes 328,857 · winning margin 23.72% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.