CT-05 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Connecticut District 5 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Jahana Hayes incumbent

89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Chris Shea

11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJahana Hayes

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

89% Jahana Hayes · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Jahana Hayes 89%

REP Chris Shea 11%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+2 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 50.8% 2024 general · margin 4.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMHayesREPShea

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Jahana Hayes$1,716,462.12

Chris Shea$465,963.04

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Jahana Hayes$1,102,716.07

Chris Shea$412,194.61

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Jahana Hayes$1,136,297.07

Chris Shea$53,768.43

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Jahana HayesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Chris SheaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Jahana HayesD+2seat-level

Chris SheaD+2seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+2

Lean (D minus R, points): +2.479

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Jahana Hayes	DEM	171,337	50.76%
George Logan	REP	157,258	46.59%

Total votes 337,526 · winning margin 4.17% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts the Working Families line (no candidate named) 8,931; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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