DE at-large House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Delaware at-large · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Sarah McBride incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Joseph Dr.Joe Arminio

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentSarah McBride

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Sarah McBride · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Sarah McBride 97%

REP Joseph Dr.Joe Arminio 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+7 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 57.9% 2024 general · margin 15.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMcbrideREPArminio

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Sarah McBride$5,556,755.49through 2026-10-14

Joseph Dr.Joe Arminio$12,301.76through 2026-09-30

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Sarah McBride$3,437,843.19through 2026-10-14

Joseph Dr.Joe Arminio$5,358.00through 2026-09-30

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Sarah McBride$2,326,039.16through 2026-10-14

Joseph Dr.Joe Arminio$6,943.76through 2026-09-30

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Sarah McBrideNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Joseph Dr.Joe ArminioNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Sarah McBrideD+7seat-level

Joseph Dr.Joe ArminioD+7seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+7

Lean (D minus R, points): +6.518

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Sarah McBride	DEM	287,830	57.86%
John J. Whalen III	REP	209,606	42.14%

Total votes 497,436 · winning margin 15.73% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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