Influence no longer invisible Races · FL-01 House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · Florida · 2026

Florida District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Florida District 1

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, Florida District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Gay Valimont
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Tyler L. Davis
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Jimmy Patronis incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJimmy Patronis

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Jimmy Patronis · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Jimmy Patronis 98%
DEM Gay Valimont 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMValimontINDDavisREPPatronis
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Gay Valimont$295,713.87
Tyler L. DavisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jimmy Patronis$4,467,312.53
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Gay Valimont$260,991.04
Tyler L. DavisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jimmy Patronis$3,527,838.22
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Gay Valimont$34,722.83
Tyler L. DavisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jimmy Patronis$939,474.31
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Gay ValimontNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tyler L. DavisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jimmy PatronisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Gay ValimontNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tyler L. DavisNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Jimmy PatronisNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.