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Race · U.S. House · Florida · 2026

Florida District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Florida District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Florida District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
LaShonda L.J. Holloway
26%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Todd Schaefer
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Mike Sell
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Aaron Bean incumbent
74%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAaron Bean

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
74% Aaron Bean · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Aaron Bean 74%
DEM LaShonda L.J. Holloway 26%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHollowayINDSchaeferOTHSellREPBean
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
LaShonda L.J. Holloway$58,546.29
Todd SchaeferNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Sell$24,206.00
Aaron Bean$2,682,266.58
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
LaShonda L.J. Holloway$24,880.85
Todd SchaeferNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Sell$15,016.63
Aaron Bean$2,579,023.86
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
LaShonda L.J. Holloway$44,105.44
Todd SchaeferNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Sell$4,857.00
Aaron Bean$577,963.71
Latest pollpercent, as stored
LaShonda L.J. HollowayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Todd SchaeferNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Mike SellNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Aaron BeanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
LaShonda L.J. HollowayNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Todd SchaeferNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike SellNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Aaron BeanNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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