Race header
DEMNominee
Rachel Grage
8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
John H. Rutherford
incumbent
92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn H. Rutherford
Hume Outlook
92% John H. Rutherford · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
John H. Rutherford
92%
DEM
Rachel Grage
8%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGrageREPRutherford
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Rachel Grage$448,142.58
John H. Rutherford$913,650.12
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Rachel Grage$375,233.44
John H. Rutherford$851,256.31
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Rachel Grage$65,881.07
John H. Rutherford$240,063.46
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Rachel GrageNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
John H. RutherfordNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Rachel GrageNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
John H. RutherfordNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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