Race header
DEMNominee
Bale Dalton
33%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Christopher Dennison
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Ryan Elijah
67%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
67% Ryan Elijah · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Ryan Elijah
67%
DEM
Bale Dalton
33%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Dalton 45.0% · Elijah 45.0%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-19
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMDaltonLIBDennisonREPElijah
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Bale Dalton$2,334,663.82through 2026-10-14
Christopher Dennison$10,500.00through 2026-06-30
Ryan Elijah$818,460.20through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Bale Dalton$2,132,409.93through 2026-10-14
Christopher Dennison$10,440.00through 2026-06-30
Ryan Elijah$645,454.08through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Bale Dalton$202,253.89through 2026-10-14
Christopher Dennison$60.00through 2026-06-30
Ryan Elijah$173,006.12through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Bale Dalton45.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-19
Christopher DennisonNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-19)
Ryan Elijah45.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-19
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Bale DaltonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Christopher DennisonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Ryan ElijahNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Dalton | Dennison | Elijah | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=414 | 45.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Jun 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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