Race header
DEMNominee
Darren Soto
incumbent
34%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Dan Green
66%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDarren Soto
Hume Outlook
66% Dan Green · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Dan Green
66%
DEM
Darren Soto
34%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMSotoREPGreen
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Darren Soto$3,652,279.81
Dan Green$2,692,713.23
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Darren Soto$3,416,403.68
Dan Green$2,243,203.48
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Darren Soto$249,994.67
Dan Green$449,959.75
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Darren SotoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Dan GreenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Darren SotoNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Dan GreenNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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