Influence no longer invisible Races · FL-11 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Florida · 2026

Florida District 11 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Florida District 11

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Race header

U.S. House, Florida District 11 · Open seat
DEMNominee
James Pericola
19%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Ralph Groves
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Joe Strada
81%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
81% Joe Strada · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Joe Strada 81%
DEM James Pericola 19%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMPericolaLIBGrovesREPStrada
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
James Pericola$225,867.92
Ralph GrovesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Strada$5,512,075.39
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
James Pericola$190,672.27
Ralph GrovesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Strada$4,652,007.69
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
James Pericola$35,195.65
Ralph GrovesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Strada$860,067.70
Latest pollpercent, as stored
James PericolaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ralph GrovesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Joe StradaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
James PericolaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Ralph GrovesNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Joe StradaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    not available

    Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.

    Prior result, this seat

    not available

    Not available District redrawn; not comparable.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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