Race header
DEMNominee
Leela Gray
33%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Tony D'Arrigo
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Anna Paulina Luna
incumbent
67%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAnna Paulina Luna
Hume Outlook
67% Anna Paulina Luna · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Anna Paulina Luna
67%
DEM
Leela Gray
33%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Luna 46.0% · Gray 47.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-15
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMGrayINDD'ArrigoREPLuna
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Leela Gray$2,917,664.89through 2026-10-14
Tony D'Arrigo$28,180.90through 2026-06-30
Anna Paulina Luna$4,351,791.83through 2026-10-14
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Leela Gray$2,261,242.12through 2026-10-14
Tony D'Arrigo$2,500.00through 2026-06-30
Anna Paulina Luna$3,736,252.21through 2026-10-14
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Leela Gray$656,422.77through 2026-10-14
Tony D'Arrigo$25,680.90through 2026-06-30
Anna Paulina Luna$746,955.17through 2026-10-14
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Leela Gray47.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-15
Tony D'ArrigoNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-15)
Anna Paulina Luna46.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-15
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Leela GrayNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Tony D'ArrigoNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Anna Paulina LunaNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Gray | D'Arrigo | Luna | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-15 | LV · n=603 | 47.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| Hart Research AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-08-25 to 2026-08-27 | LV · n=500 | 44.0% | 7.0% | 43.0% | none |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-22 | LV · n=400 | 41.0% | not named | 49.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Jun 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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